Who is the favorite to win the presidential election in Argentina? That’s what the polls say

(CNN Spanish) — In a last-minute twist, the lists for the 2023 presidential elections in Argentina closed on Saturday 24 June. What do the polls say?

Peronism arrived by surprise less than 24 hours after the registration deadline, when it announced the candidacy of Economy Minister Sergio Massa.

The day before, after an alleged leak in the media which indicated the head of the Interior portfolio as a candidate for the governing party, the latter, a man close to Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, had presented his announcement: “I am Wado de Pedro and I want to be president, the president of all Argentine families”. It couldn’t be. But it must be said that Massa will have to face an internal one with Juan Grabois, a social leader who is part of the same party, from whom a result is not expected prominent.

According to political scientist Simón Etcheverry, faced with a more centrist candidate, such as the Minister of Economy, “Grabois offers an alternative to Kirchner’s die-hard voter in the Unión por la Patria space.”

On the opposite sidewalk, the space by Mauricio Macri, Together for Change, reaffirmed its two standard bearers: Patricia Bullrich and Horacio Rodríguez Larreta. And, as was known, La Libertad Avanza played its only card, Javier Milei, the founding leader. This is how the main forces of the political arc were formed.

One of the keys to take into account when analyzing this year’s electoral landscape in Argentina is that the two main forces in the last presidential elections of 2019 were “introduced” by the far-right party and, as the vice president said in a ‘television interview, the election has become a dispute between third parties.

This is corroborated by measurements from several consultancies. The latest data from Opina Argentina, corresponding to the month of June before the closure of the lists, place Peronism with a percentage of 26 points, while the party of Macri and La Libertad Avanza are equal to 24. This inclination, which places the three spaces in close percentages, it is repeated in the numbers of the Tendencies consultancy: Peronism and JxC with 23 points, followed by the libertarian party with 20.

Ed: The methodology used for each survey is detailed at the end of this article.

With Cristina Kirchner and Macri out of the picture, the scene is reconfigured

On repeated occasions, and even creating confusion among her followers, Peronism’s main leader announced that she would not be a “candidate for anything” in 2023 and complied. With the closure of the consumed list, Cristina Fernández is not in any ballot. Mauricio Macri also did the same. “Convinced that the political space we have started needs to be expanded (…) I want to ratify the decision not to run for office in the next elections,” he announced in a video he posted on his social networks. AS? Is it the end of an era?

The well-known political scientist Jorge Asís referred to this story: “Fortunately they are not candidates, because the presence of the two in the centrality of politics is a guarantee of a permanent and continuous belligerence. If the points in Argentina become Rodríguez Larreta and Sergio Massa, the country changes in a week, “he said during an interview with CNN. “Why do I say this? Because the main problem Argentina has is political, if politics is perfectly ordered, the economy is sorted,” concluded the writer.

But there is still a long way to go to define how the leaders will be ranked in the coming months and who will be the winners of the electoral contest.

The image data of the main candidates

Let’s dig a little deeper into the data collected by three public opinion consultants on the image of the main candidates.

Horacio Rodriguez Larreta

• Opina Argentina consultant: positive image 43%, negative image 44%

• Trends Consultant: positive image 37%, negative image 47%

• Consultant Jacob: Positive image 13%, negative image 58%

Average calculated by CNN: Positive image 31%, negative image 50%

Patricia Bullrich

• Opina Argentina consultant: positive image 31%, negative image 57%

• Trends Consultant: positive image 39%, negative image 45%

• Consultant Jacob: Positive image 42%, negative image 39%

Average calculated by CNN: Positive image 37%, negative image 47%

Sergio Massa

• Opina Argentina Consultant: Positive image 38%, negative image 55%

• Trends Consultant: positive image 29%, negative image 59%

• Consultant Jacob: Positive image 15%, negative image 64%

Average calculated by CNN: Positive image 27%, negative image 59%

javier millei

• Opina Argentina consultant: positive image 44%, negative image 45%

• Trends Consultant: positive image 39%, negative image 46%

• Consultant Jacob: Positive image 34%, negative image 45%

Average calculated by CNN: Positive image 39%, negative image 45%

“The big unknown we have among pollsters is Milei,” Opina Argentina editor Facundo Nejamkis told CNN, “whether it’s closer to 15 or closer to 30.” According to the analyst, this significantly changes the scenario. “Closer to 30 is a three-way tie, an uncertain vote,” however, “at 15 you can trigger a first-round winning result.”

Survey methodology used in this article.

Tendencies conducted its investigation based on 2,506 cases nationwide, in a population over the age of 16.

Opina Argentina conducted its investigation based on 1,402 cases nationwide, in a population over the age of 18.

Giacobbe carried out his survey on the basis of 2,500 cases of a sample corrected for quotas by gender, age, educational qualification, income received and regions at the national level.

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